Name:_____________________

Final Exam (take-home)

• There are 2 problems based on the following concepts/problems we covered in class. Each problem is worth 50 points.
Week # Topic
14 Operations Simulation
15 Bayes Rule to evaluate Product / Operations Reliability

• This Word file (with your solutions) is due at the ‘Final Exam (take-home)’ assignment on Brightspace by 11:59 PM on Apr 19 (Tues).

• Group work is prohibited.

• Since the Final Exam is take-home, there will not be a lecture on Apr 19 (Tues).

Problem 1 (Week 14; Operations Simulation)
Under the new policy at a truck dealership, two trucks are to be ordered whenever the number of trucks on hand is four or fewer. Orders can be filled overnight. According to the dealer’s records, the relative frequency distribution for daily demand is:
Demand Relative Frequency
0 0.10
1 0.45
2 0.45
The manager has hired you as a consultant and wants you to simulate his inventory level for 8 days. He has told you to assume a beginning inventory of 9 trucks.

Solution

Demand Relative Frequency Random Numbers
0 0.10
1 0.45
2 0.45

Table of Random Numbers
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Day Random Number Demand Beginning
Inventory Ending
Inventory
1 31
2 73
3 10
4 15
5 37
6 82
7 19
8 24

Problem 2 (Week 15; Bayes Rule to evaluate Product / Operations Reliability)
Suppose that two factories supply light bulbs to the market. Factory X’s bulbs work forever in 99% of cases, whereas factory Y’s bulbs work forever in 95% of cases. It is known that factory X supplies 60% of the total bulbs available and Y supplies 40% of the total bulbs available.
a) What is the chance that a purchased bulb will work forever?
b) Given that a purchased bulb will work forever, what is the chance that it was made in Factory X?

————–

Name:_____________________

Exam at the end (take-home)

• There are two problems based on the concepts and problems we discussed in class. Each problem has a point value of 50.

Week # Theme

Simulation of 14 Operations

15 Bayes Rule for Product/Operational Reliability Evaluation

• This Word file (with your solutions) is due by 11:59 p.m. on April 19 at the ‘Final Exam (take-home)’ assignment on Brightspace (Tues).

• Group work is not permitted.

• There will be no lecture on April 19th because the Final Exam is a take-home exam (Tues).

1st issue (Week 14; Operations Simulation)

When there are four or fewer trucks on hand at a truck dealership, the new policy requires two trucks to be ordered. Orders can be fulfilled in as little as 24 hours. The dealer’s records show that the relative frequency distribution for